Nick:
"Last time we talked about the course toward 2026. Today I want to make it sharper: what do we do with the holidays and all those 'spending weeks'? What does the data from this year say, and how do we square that with sustainability?"
Nick:
"First the facts. Big analysts expect growth, but slower than last year. Deloitte forecasts in the US the slowest holiday growth since the pandemic (around +2.9% to +3.4% in total retail; e-commerce ~+7-9%), a signal that consumers are getting more price-sensitive. That helps the context for Europe/NL, because that trend usually trickles through."
Emma:
"So growth, but with the brakes on. Are you seeing shifts in when people buy?"
Nick:
"Yes. Adobe's data on 2024 shows that the season started long before Black Friday and produced record online revenues (Nov-Dec: $241.4 bn online, +8.7% YoY). Cyber Monday recorded $13.3 bn (+7.3%), and the mobile share keeps rising. That pattern, early deals and a longer tail, is the blueprint for 2025."
Fatima:
"And Europe?"
Nick:
"In the UK, online spending around BF/CM in 2024 grew ~5% YoY; Black Friday itself +7.2%. In the EU-5, McKinsey recently reported stable to flat consumer sentiment (cautious, value-driven). In Germany/France/Italy, multiple studies showed that many consumers are 'mindful' shoppers (fewer impulses, focus on essential purchases, avoiding returns)."
"At the same time, Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) is growing during Cyber Week; Adobe spoke in 2024 about record BNPL volumes and a substantial mobile contribution. Expectation: 2025 continues that."
Emma:
"So campaigns: longer and mobile-first, with BNPL and value-proof messaging."
Nick:
"Exactly. And watch out for 'promo inflation': Adobe calculated last year that sharp discounts themselves create extra revenue. But you have to watch the margin."
Fatima:
"It sometimes feels like an endless discount train. Hasn't Black Friday just become a long promotion period?"
Nick:
"Yes, the season is shifting and stretching. Signals: retailers start earlier (October teasers), run on past New Year; data from 2024 shows more '$4B days' outside the classic peak than the year before. Expectation: 2025/26 keep this pattern — longer window, more peak days, omnichannel and mobile central."
Emma:
"So is Black Friday going away?"
Nick:
"Unlikely in the short term. As long as consumers expect discounts and macro pressure persists, the moment stays — but less 'one day', more 'season'. Think of spending weeks as a 'calendar cap': retailers spread risk and stock, consumers hunt for better timing."
Nick:
"The ecological bill is the elephant in the room. Studies point to three levers:
Returns: a recent report estimates that e-commerce returns cause up to five times more packaging waste than offline purchases and add up to ~24 Mt CO₂/year. Return reduction (better size advice/AR, photo reviews, stricter return windows) delivers impact and margin. " packagingeurope.com
Packaging: literature shows that reusable solutions in some scenarios lower the footprint, but the outcome depends on return logistics, turnover speed and distance. So: 'fit for purpose' packaging (less air), mono-materials, reusable where logistics make sense. " ScienceDirect
Awareness is rising: industry analyses summarise the CO₂ drivers (material, dimensions, last mile) and point to operational quick wins: right-sizing, bundling, pick-up points, 'ship-from-store' with low-emission last mile. " packaging-gateway.com
Emma:
"So our to-do: fewer returns (size tools, better content) and leaner packaging. That's commercially smart too."
Nick:
"Exactly. Smart agencies/partners (think services-as-a-service) help you push this through operationally without letting your cost curve run off the rails."
Fatima:
"After Covid everything seemed to tilt — more local, less waste — but we keep falling back. How come?"
Nick:
"Behavioural science calls this the attitude–behavior gap: people say sustainability is important to them, but do something else under price pressure, convenience or habit. Recent EU studies and updates (incl. fashion) confirm there are structural barriers: price, friction, limited choice, unclear impact."
"On top of that, rebound and sometimes moral-licensing effects play a role: after one 'green' action, consumers unconsciously feel 'compensated', leading them to consume more elsewhere (or become less critical). In clothing/energy this is documented; note: moral licensing isn't found in every study, but rebound is robust."
Emma:
"And crisis behaviour?"
Nick:
"Crises sometimes create brief windows where sustainable behaviour rises (less travel, conscious purchases), but as soon as the pressure ebbs, routine pulls again. Research around COVID-19 describes exactly that pendulum effect; some habits stick, many fall back without structural incentives."
Fatima:
"So: without price and convenience incentives it fades."
Nick:
"Yes. The policy/market levers that help:
Transparent information and 'default' sustainable choices (choice architecture).
Price incentives (dynamic shipping fees, return fees where appropriate).
Remove friction (size advice, pick-up points with a benefit).
Social norm (making 'others choose X' visible).
Choice reduction (fewer variants = less choice stress & fewer returns)."
Nick:
"Let's make it practical. If you want to win these holidays and shrink your footprint:"
Emma:
"Plan earlier, peak longer. Start with 'soft drops' in October, build through to past Christmas. Make mobile your default. Use BNPL deliberately, but watch your margin."
Fatima:
"Sell with fewer returns. Invest in size & fit tools, UGC photos and clear product info; tighten the 'free-and-unlimited' returns slightly with smart thresholds and pick-up discounts."
Nick:
"Packaging on a diet. Right-size, mono-materials, and reusable where the logistics make sense (subscription/return loop)."
Emma:
"Campaigns on 'value', not just 'discount'. Combine price with sustainable claims you can deliver on (repair, extended lifespan, CO₂-neutral last mile where feasible). EU consumers say they're buying more mindfully — speak with data, not slogans."
Nick:
"Use AI pragmatically. Let AI handle the heavy lifting (forecasts, personalisation, stock, content drafts), but keep the human in your service. 'The future is digital, the connection human.' That's exactly the antidote to AI and promo fatigue."
